The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 1 point with 14 lead changes and 49 ties. The game saw 21 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 80%.
Q4, 0:38.4, Sabonis (SAC): Sabonis 1' Reverse Layup (21 PTS) (Monk 8 AST). It swung the win probability by +55.7 points.
Q4, 0:07, Sabonis (SAC): Sabonis Free Throw 1 of 2 (22 PTS). It swung the win probability by -41.3 points.
George (LAC) 8 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
George 3PT Jump Shot (26 PTS) (Westbrook 10 AST)
Gordon 25' 3PT Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Plumlee 2 AST)
George 3' Driving Layup (28 PTS)
Sabonis 1' Reverse Layup (21 PTS) (Monk 8 AST)
Batum 26' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Westbrook 8 AST)
Westbrook 25' 3PT Jump Shot (18 PTS) (George 4 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
SAC beat LAC 128-127 by 1 point.
The game turned at Q4, 0:51.9: George 3PT Jump Shot (26 PTS) (Westbrook 10 AST). That single play moved SAC's chance of winning from 73% to 43%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went LAC's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Fox of SAC. Across 49 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 139 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q1, 6:43, with SAC down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 39%. In other words: possible, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q3, 7:30, with the game tilting SAC's way. The play in the middle of it: Fox 1' Driving Layup (16 PTS).
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.