The story of the game
Win probability after every play. Hover or drag to relive any moment.
Decided by 23 points with 3 lead changes and 4 ties. The game saw 2 major win probability swings, and the losing team's chances peaked at 73%.
Q2, 1:58, Adebayo (MIA): MISS Adebayo 11' Turnaround Jump Shot. It swung the win probability by +10.3 points.
Q2, 2:12, Harden (PHI): Harden 26' 3PT Step Back Jump Shot (17 PTS). It swung the win probability by -9.3 points.
Maxey (PHI) 3 pts, Robinson (MIA) 3 pts, Milton (PHI) 3 pts, Strus (MIA) 3 pts
Turning points
The plays that moved winning odds the most.
Harden 28' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (10 PTS)
Strus 3PT Running Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Herro 3 AST)
Harden 27' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Milton 1 AST)
Milton 3PT Running Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Harden 2 AST)
Oladipo 26' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (3 PTS)
Strus 26' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Herro 2 AST)
Who actually swung it
Players ranked by how much they moved the win probability, not by points scored.
Postgame read
PHI beat MIA 119-96 by 23 points.
The game turned at Q2, 9:12: Harden 28' 3PT Pullup Jump Shot (10 PTS). That single play moved MIA's chance of winning from 58% to 44%. No other moment shifted the game more, and it went PHI's way.
No one influenced the outcome more than Harden of PHI. Across 38 plays, his actions moved the win probability by a combined 55 percentage points, the most of any player on the floor.
The tensest moment for a comeback came at Q2, 8:40, with MIA down 5 points. The model put their chance of pulling it off at 31%. In other words: possible, but not nothing.
The strongest run that didn't fully show on the scoreboard came at Q2, 8:43, with the game tilting PHI's way. The play in the middle of it: MISS Herro 9' Driving Floating Jump Shot.
These numbers come from ClutchCast's champion model, the winner of a competition between six models. The winner is judged on how honest its probabilities are on games it never trained on, not just how often it picks the right winner.